A cash flow forecast that updates itself
Profit on paper and money in the bank are two different things, and it's the second one that pays the wages. Plenty of profitable firms have had a nasty week because a big bill and a slow payer landed together.
Where it hurts
Most cash flow forecasts are a spreadsheet somebody built once, got right for a fortnight, then never updated. The moment it stops matching reality, everyone quietly stops trusting it.
So the real forecast lives in the owner's head. You sort of know the VAT bill's coming, you sort of know a couple of customers are slow, and you hope it works out. Usually it does. Occasionally it doesn't, and then you're moving money around at the last minute.
A forecast is only useful if it's current. If it can pull in what's actually owed, what's actually due, and your real bank balance, it stops being a guess.
What I'd build
I'd build a rolling forecast that pulls your actual position from Xero, QuickBooks or FreeAgent: money in the bank now, invoices due in, bills, wages and VAT going out. That's the mechanical half. The honest half is that due dates are fiction, so I'd add an AI step that reads your invoice history and works out when each customer actually pays, then builds the forecast on those real dates instead. It refreshes on its own, flags a tight spot weeks out with a short note saying which invoice or bill is causing it, and if you want to test a decision (take on that hire, buy that van) you can drop the number in and watch the effect on your cash.
What changes
- See a cash squeeze coming weeks ahead, not the day it hits
- Forecast built on when customers actually pay, not when they should
- Tight spots flagged with a note saying what's causing them
- Try out a big decision and see what it does to your cash
Related fixes
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